Session Summary
Richard Folland presents an overview of the challenges and potential outcomes associated with international climate finance as COP29 approaches. He highlights the connection between Carbon Tracker and Planet Tracker as sister organisations focused on the energy transition and climate risk, primarily aimed at finance and investment audiences.
Richard notes that the political landscape poses significant obstacles to progress, particularly due to the longstanding disappointment among developing nations over the failure of developed countries to deliver on climate finance commitments, specifically the pledge of $100 billion annually made back in 2009.
Richard outlines the negotiation process regarding the new collective quantified goal (NCQG) for climate finance, which is designed to establish a cumulative financial support agreement from the global North to the global South. This goal has a minimum target of $100 billion, with expectations that it will eventually require trillions to meet the needs of developing countries. He emphasises the need for private finance to complement public sector contributions, given the limitations on developed nations’ budgets due to competing demands.
Looking forward to COP 29, Richard presents two potential scenarios: positive and negative outcomes. A successful negotiation leading to an agreement on the NCQG would send a strong signal to private investors, while a breakdown in discussions would likely deter private finance engagement. He also emphasises the role of international financial institutions, like the World Bank and IMF, in supporting climate finance initiatives.
Richard concludes by asserting that COP30 in Belém, Brazil, will be critical for setting the direction of future climate action, particularly regarding Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and the collective effort to keep global warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius. He stresses that the decisions made in the coming years will be pivotal in determining the effectiveness of global climate strategies.