Following an insightful presentation from Accuracy’s Noémie Lewertowski and Cyrielle El Fekih, Amanda Young, Board Member, Crown Estate Scotland moderated the summit’s closing panel with Saker Nusseihbeh, CEO, Federated Hermes, Sophie Lu, Global Head Heavy Industry Decarbonisation | Group Sustainability COE, HSBC, and Dr Hayat Sindi, Honorary Fellow of Newnham College, Cambridge.
The geography of transition capital is shifting as China, the Gulf states and other middle powers increasingly shape clean technology supply chains, industrial investment and sustainable finance. The discussion explored how decarbonisation is being driven by different national priorities, from China’s pursuit of industrial leadership to the Gulf’s economic diversification and Europe’s focus on competitiveness and strategic autonomy.
A central question was how to balance the efficiency and affordability of global supply chains with the growing imperative for resilience and security. While China’s industrial model has enabled clean technology deployment at scale, replicating this approach presents significant challenges for other markets, particularly around cost of capital and expected returns. The panel examined how governments and investors can justify and finance the additional cost of resilience, including through strategic partnerships, diversified ownership and long-term investment. Building domestic innovation ecosystems and transferring capabilities, rather than simply importing technologies, emerged as critical to ensuring that middle powers can participate meaningfully in the transition.
Exploring the Discussion
China’s dominance in clean technology manufacturing reflects a distinctive economic model characterised by long-term industrial planning, extensive state involvement and comparatively low expected investment returns. This has enabled rapid deployment of renewable energy, electric vehicles and other technologies, driving down costs globally while creating significant competitive pressures. The discussion examined whether other economies can replicate this approach, particularly given differences in the cost of capital, investment expectations and the willingness of governments to support strategic industries.
Gulf states and other middle powers are expanding their role in transition investment through economic diversification, renewable energy, hydrogen, carbon capture and emerging technologies. However, sustainable industrial leadership requires more than access to capital or imported technology. Building domestic innovation ecosystems depends on coordinated investment in research institutions, universities, entrepreneurship, skills and industrial capacity. The discussion highlighted the importance of moving beyond technology transfer towards capability transfer, enabling countries to develop and commercialise their own solutions.
The panel explored whether investment in energy resilience should be viewed through a similar lens to defence expenditure, where maintaining redundancy and diversified capabilities is accepted as a necessary cost of security. Domestic renewable generation, electrification and diversified critical mineral supply chains can reduce geopolitical vulnerabilities, but may involve higher costs than established alternatives. This raises a fundamental financing question: who should pay for resilience? Strategic procurement, long-term purchasing agreements, public support and alternative ownership structures were considered as mechanisms for making these investments commercially viable.
Europe faces challenges from high costs, fragmented capital markets and competition from economies pursuing more interventionist industrial strategies. Nevertheless, its strengths in scientific research, advanced manufacturing, financial services and institutional capacity offer opportunities for collaboration with China and Gulf economies. The discussion explored how strategic ownership, contractual access and trusted partnerships can strengthen control over critical resources without requiring full domestic production. Balancing the efficiency of global trade with the need for greater resilience will be central to future investment decisions.
Key takeaways
Transition Capital Is Being Redrawn
China and emerging middle powers are reshaping clean technology investment as industrial competitiveness, economic diversification and geopolitical priorities increasingly influence capital allocation.
From Technology Transfer to Capability Building
Lasting transition leadership requires more than importing technologies. Investment in research, skills, innovation ecosystems and domestic industrial capabilities is essential.
Financing the Cost of Resilience
Diversified energy systems and supply chains offer strategic security but may carry higher costs, requiring new approaches to risk-sharing, investment returns and long-term financing.
Strategic Partnerships Over Self-Sufficiency
Ownership structures, long-term agreements and international cooperation can secure critical resources and capabilities without sacrificing the benefits of global trade.